The latest Bloomberg Tier 1 Q3 2024 report highlights significant developments across the photovoltaic (PV) market, addressing both growth and challenges for producers. The report delves into global PV module production and installation forecasts, the polysilicon market, industry consolidation and regional differences in market expansion.
Rising PV module production and producer challenges
Global production of photovoltaic modules is expected to reach 12 TW in 2024, marking a substantial increase from previous years. However, global installations are forecasted at only 592 GW, reflecting a 33% increase compared to 2023. This excess supply is driving module prices to their lowest recorded level of $0.0096/W.
Source: BloombergNEF 3Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook
Polysilicon under cost pressure
Polysilicon, a critical material for PV cell production, plays a key role in market dynamics. Prices dropped to $49/kg in 2024, below production costs for many manufacturers, leading some producers to reduce capacities or cease operations altogether. China, the largest producer, reported a 61% increase in polysilicon production during the first half of 2024, highlighting the industry’s ongoing supply surplus.
Regional market variations
The report details significant changes in the PV market across different regions:
- China remains the largest global producer and installer, with installations projected to rise from 260,235 MW in 2023 to 308,580 MW in 2024, marking a 19% increase.
- India is experiencing rapid growth, with installed capacity expected to nearly double from 13,537 MW in 2023 to 26,780 MW in 2024, representing a 98% increase.
- Pakistan stands out with a remarkable 322% increase, moving from 2,960 MW in 2023 to 12,500 MW in 2024, illustrating South Asia’s growing role in the PV industry.
- Uzbekistan is set to see the largest percentage growth of 765%, increasing from 410 MW in 2023 to 3,510 MW in 2024.
- Saudi Arabia is also seeing significant growth, with capacity rising from 1,962 MW in 2023 to 3,315 MW in 2024, an increase of 69%.
- Nigeria, like other emerging markets, is experiencing rapid growth of 104%, from 775 MW in 2023 to 1,583 MW in 2024. This shows that African markets are also starting to play a significant role in global renewable energy production.
Source: BloombergNEF 3Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook
Industry consolidation as a response to financial pressures
In light of financial difficulties and price pressures, the Bloomberg Tier 1 Q3 2024 report predicts possible industry consolidation in the PV sector. Mergers and acquisitions may become necessary for survival in challenging market conditions, where product prices fall below production costs. A notable example is the proposed acquisition of Runergy by Tongwei, which could mark the beginning of a wave of mergers.
TOPCon – the future of PV technology
One of the main technological trends in the PV industry is the introduction of advanced solutions such as TOPCon technology, which improves the efficiency of photovoltaic cells by reducing energy losses and increasing module efficiency. Traditional PERC modules reached a price of $0.0096/W, while modern modules based on TOPCon technology cost around $0.0103/W. The Bloomberg Tier 1 Q3 2024 report indicates that TOPCon technology may significantly lower production costs and improve energy efficiency, which will be key in the context of global price competition.
Forecasts for 2024
Despite financial challenges, global PV module production and installations are set to grow in 2024. Forecasts estimate installations to range between 550 and 620 GW globally, marking another record year for the industry. However, overproduction and low profit margins may lead to further financial difficulties for many companies.
Outlook for the PV Industry
The Bloomberg Tier 1 Q3 2024 report clearly shows that the photovoltaic industry faces many challenges, but also opportunities. Key to success will be adapting to price pressures and the introduction of new technologies, such as TOPCon, which have the potential to revolutionize the market.